Australia Raises Terrorism Threat Level to “Probable” Amid Rising Extremist Concerns

The Australian government has raised the nation’s terrorism threat alert level from “possible” to “probable” due to concerns about increasing radicalization among young people and community tensions over the Israel-Hamas conflict. This is the first time the threat level has been elevated to “probable” since November 2022. However, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese clarified that although terrorism is perceived as an increased danger in the current climate, there are no specific threats known at the moment. The decision to elevate the threat level was made based on advice from the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO), the country’s main domestic spy agency.

According to ASIO, there is a growing number of Australians embracing a diverse range of extreme ideologies and being willing to use violence to advance their causes. This trend is in line with a global rise in politically motivated violence and extremism. ASIO also highlighted concerns about youth radicalization and online radicalization, attributing these issues to a rise in new mixed ideologies. Additionally, recent incidents, including a stabbing at a church service by a 16-year-old boy, have contributed to the decision to raise the threat level. Despite the elevated alert level, Prime Minister Albanese reassured Australians that “probable” does not mean inevitable.

ASIO Director-General Mike Burgess also emphasized that while the security environment has degraded, the public should not be frightened. The threat level of “probable” indicates a greater than 50% chance of an onshore attack or planning in the next 12 months, but it does not mean that there is intelligence about current attack planning or an imminent attack. Furthermore, Burgess highlighted that political polarization, intolerance, and anti-authority beliefs have intensified since the COVID-19 pandemic and the Israel-Hamas conflict, further undermining social cohesion.

This has contributed to an increase in investigations of planned extremist attacks in Australia in recent months, with a noticeable surge in youths embracing extremism. On the other hand, New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon stated that the National Terrorism Threat Level in New Zealand would remain at its “low” designation, emphasizing that each country makes its own assessment. New Zealand’s threat level was briefly raised to “high” following the 2019 mosque attacks in Christchurch but was subsequently lowered to “low.”