Exit Poll Survey
*YSRCP 30 to 50 SEATS
* 18 to 21 LOK SABHA SEATS FOR NDA
*4 to 7 MP SEATS FOR YSRCP
KEY FACTORS
Anti-incumbency-Caste polarisation
Government employees-youth-neutral voters
Patibandla Srinivas
Amaravati: The parties of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) including TDP, Jana Sena, and BJP will come to power in Andhra Pradesh in the 2024 elections as per the polling trend.
The entire country is waiting for the result of Andhra Pradesh as former Chief Minister and the country’s most promising leader N Chandrababu Naidu and his rival YS Jagan Mohan Reddy who took several controversial decisions including three capital plans are in the election battle.
The Andhra Pradesh State registered 81.86 polling percentage in 2024 elections which is the ever-highest voter turnout in the election history of Andhra Pradesh. It is 2.09 percent higher compared with the previous voter turnout of 79.77 percent in the 2019 elections. Interestingly both the parties claim the polling percentage trend is favourable to them.
As per the study of THE CAPITAL MEDIA GROUP (Exit Poll Survey) with the psephology experts and senior journalists, the polling trend is completely favorable to the NDA parties comprising the TDP, Jana Sena, and BJP.
According to ground reports, the NDA parties will win 125 to 145 Assembly segments and 18 to 21 Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 election. The number is likely to surge a bit in MLA seat projection in favour of the TDP.
The YSR Congress lost the hold in Rayalaseema districts in the last minute. As per the polling trends, the YSR Congress will have a chance to win up to 30 to 50 seats.
The TDP improved the situation in Chittoor and Kurnool districts in the last minute. The NDA candidates will have a chance to register a landslide victory in the remaining districts from Nellore, Prakasam, Guntur, Krishna, West Godavari, and East Godavari, Vishakha, Vizianagaram, and Srikakulam districts except in the limits of Araku Lok Sabha.
The alliance with the Jana Sena helped the NDA candidates in the Krishna, Guntur, and Godavari districts. Even the NDA lost a small percentage of votes with the alliance of the BJP but interestingly the party is likely to win 3 to 4 MP seats in its contesting 6 seats.
The Jana Sena will win the two MP seats while the Congress party has also emerged as a strong contender in the two Assembly segments and one Lok Sabha. (Exit poll survey)
The polling trend is completely favorable to the TDP and alliance parties and the majority of voters opined there is a necessity to change the ruling party and its government. The anti-incumbency factors like lack of development, unemployment, increasing prices of essential commodities, sand and liquor policy, stopping construction of Amaravati capital and Polavaram, police cases, the abusive languages of several ministers and MLAs, no Chief Minister’s appointment for several YSRC leaders and disappointment in party cadre are reasons for the situation. (Exit Poll survey)
The majority of youth, government employees, and neutral voters disliked the government. These sections played a game-changer role. Similarly, caste polarisation has also played a crucial role.
Several sections of people like Kamma, Vysyas, Rajus, Brahmins, Kapus, and backward classes reacted against the YSR Congress. The study reveals that the Yadava community now supported the TDP instead of the YSR Congress in the 2019 election. Similarly the Kapus also completely supported the NDA parties this time. The Reddy community has not extended support to the YSR Congress as in the 2019 elections.
As a result, the NDA parties will register a landslide victory in the 2024 elections. The polling percentage was registered higher in the present election when compared with the previous elections. The result also proved that high voter turnout is always against the ruling parties.