AP election history reveals high voter turnout always against ruling party 

High voter turnout

•When a high percentage is registered then opposition party gets power

**Its a proven theory in last several elections  

Patibandla Srinivas

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Amaravati: The polling trend which registered the highest percentage in the history of Andhra Pradesh is close to 83 now a hot topic everywhere in political circles.( High voter turnout)

The leaders of various political parties have started discussions on voter turnout that indicate whether it is anti-incumbency or pro-government. The rank and file of two major political parties are facing an anxious movement inquiring about grassroots-level information.

Now everyone is discussing the highest polling turnout either positive or negative for their respective party.

As per the election history of Andhra Pradesh since 1983, whenever the high polling trend is registered it is always favourable to the opposition party. The Opposition party grabbed the power from the ruling party when the polling registered higher than in the previous election.  

In the election history of Andhra Pradesh, the ruling TDP lost first time in the 1989 election after its establishment in 1983 led by NT Rama Rao with an anti-incumbency factor. The polling percentage was registered at 70.44 percent in the election compared with the previous election’s voter turnout of 67.57 percent in the 1985 election.

The experience of election results reveals that the ruling party lost when the voter turnout was higher than the previous election’s polling percentage. The Congress party won 181 seats while TDP won only 74 seats in 1989 elections though voter turnout difference was below 3 per cent. Before that the TDP had won 202 seats and Congress won 50 seats in the previous 1985 election.

In the next 1994 Assembly elections, the TDP again came to power with an anti-incumbency factor. The ruling Congress lost in the election.  The polling percentage was registered at 71.02 in 1994 which was higher than the previous election’s 70.44 voter turnout of 1989 polls. TDP won 216 seats while the Congress party was confined to 26 seats only in this election.

In the 1999 elections, the TDP government led by former Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu again retained power consecutively for the second time. When the polling percentage was registered at 69.15 per cent which was lower than the previous 1994 election’s 71.02 percentage. The election result categorically reveals that when the voting percentage was low compared with the previous election then the ruling party again came to power consecutively. In this election the TDP won 180 seats and while Congress won 91 seats in the erstwhile state of Andhra Pradesh.

In the immediate 2004 elections, the Opposition Congress came to power by overtaking the ruling TDP under the leadership of YS Rajasekhar Reddy. Then the voter turnout was almost 70 (69.96) percentage which was 0.81 percent higher than the previous 1999 election.

So again this election also proved when the polling percentage registered high it was against the ruling party with an anti-incumbency factor. Late Rajasekhar Reddy secured the Chief Minister’s post for the first time in his career in that election.   

In the 2009 elections, YS Rajasekhar Reddy retained power consecutively for the second term. Though the polling percentage was registered at 72.72 with 2.76 per cent high turnout, the actor Chiranjeevi entered into the election fray as the third contender to the main political parties TDP and Congress parties. His party bagged 6.32 per cent vote share.

As a result, the TDP lost with just 1 per cent vote difference in the election. Even the Congress won the election but its vote share declined from 41.61 to 38.56 percent. Interestingly, the ruling Congress won the election but the election had also proved that the high voter turnout was against the ruling government’s prospects.  ( .( High voter turnout )

In the 2014 election, the polling percent was registered at 74.68 which was higher than the previous 72.72 percentage of the 2009 election record. Again the Opposition TDP came to power and the newly emerged YSR Congress in the place of the ruling Congress with the same ideological voting pattern lost in the election.

1n the 2019 election, the opposition YSR Congress registered a landslide victory with a polling percentage of 80.39 which was higher than the 2014’s 74.68 voter turnout. YS Jagan Mohan Reddy became the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh from his Opposition leader’s role.

So all the election history of Andhra Pradesh reveals that when the voter turnout registered high compared with the previous election it was proved that it was against the ruling party. Now the YSR Congress government would change the tradition is a million-dollar question and the voters have the only way to wait and watch until June 4 for the announcement of the election result.

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